[Barrister]

Now is the time to start our speculation and share strategies for the 2010 F1 Fantasy Season.

If you want to join The League, follow this link: The Team Speed Formula 1 Fantasy League 2010 Entry Info Thread

Here are the currently available drivers and their values:



Here is my early preseason analysis.

Introduction: As the new season gets closer and I look at the pre-season driver values, I can't help but notice that it looks a lot like last year. The superstars and the hot rookies are overpriced while the savvy veterans are in the sweet spot. I believe that there are two possible strategies that you can take when building your team:

1) have a 3 or 4 man team but pick the best (and most expensive) driver's on the grid; or

2) Have a 5 or 6 man team but pick the cheaper drivers.

I don't think it is any big secret that last year strategy number 2 carried the day. Not only did our League winner end with a 7 driver team, but the overall Fantasy Racers winner - out of nearly 5,000 participants - also had a 7 man team - anchored by Adrian Sutil and Timo Glock. Unfortunately, neither of these winners was me (I finished 11th out of 57 in The League in 2009). I learned just a bit too late that quantity beat out quality and that you had to have the guts to drop your superstars and pick up Fischichella.

Just something to think about. Now let's look at the drivers.

1. Rookies: I think the rookie crop this year is full of bad gambles and could be a trap for those trying to follow the quantity over quality strategy that seemed to carry the day last year. Among the rookies, the best bet and deal is probably Kamui Kobayashi (BMW) at 7.50 mil. I like Nico Hulkenberg (Williams) - but not at 8.0 mil. For 8.0 mil you could pick up Barrichello (Williams) or Kubica (Renault) - two cheap and seasoned veterans. One long shot that couldn't hurt as a fifth or sixth driver might be Bruno Senna (Campos) at 6.50 mil. He can't go down in value and will at least complete some laps if he runs at the back. Remember, you get a point for every lap completed in the race. In the end, no more than one rookie driver will probably find his way onto my roster - especially given the veteran talent out there for not much more off the budget.

2. Sly Veterans: I think the real gold rush to be had this year is in some very undervalued veteran drivers. As mentioned above, look at Kubica and Barrichello - both at a mere 8.0 mil a piece! What a steal! These two could form the base of a very strong 5 or 6 man team and really rise in value if they land in the points early. I would even take a hard look at Sebastian Buemi (Toro Ross) at 7.50 mil. This was a kid who really surprised everyone last year. As a second year man with the same team, he could be the steal of the pre-season pickups. My advice is to stock your team with anyone under 9.0 mil who has been in F1 for at least a year. This is a much better bet than the rookie crop - many of whom are with first year teams as well - who cost nearly the same or more.

3. Overvalued: Right now there are a few drivers that are ripe to fall in terms of their driver values. First amongst this group is Nico Rosberg (Brawn/Merc). 12.0 mil!? Are you freakin' kidding me?? This guy is great during practice (thus I have dubbed him "Good Mr. Friday) but he never pays out on race day. I wouldn't touch Rosberg for anything over 8.5 mil until he wins a race. There is just too much downside. I would also say that Schumi is a bit overvalued at 12.0 mil. I love Schumi. He is a legend. But until he proves that he is not too old to make it, I won't pay 12.0 mil for him. If he were 10.0 mil he might be attractive. You really have to think about it when you are considering a double-digit driver. There is just very little room to up your budget with them and they often fall off hard.

4. Undervalued: There are, in my opinion, some real steals on the board right now. Granted, these are long shots, but they all have a big upside. No risk, no reward! First and foremost among them is Heikki Kovalainen (Lotus). At 7.00 you get a driver in his 5th year in F1. He has been with Renault and McLaren - two of the oldest and best teams - and has proven he can score points and win races. The only caution is that he is with a new team - Lotus. But nothing is free. I still like him at 7.0 mil. Another undervalued guy is Jarno Trulli - also racing for Lotus. But, once again, you get a veteran guy who proved himself last year for a mere 7.0 mil. Think about it: you could have both Heikki and Jarno for a mere 1.5 mil more than Fernando Alonso by himself! That's how you play the game.

5. Cream of The Crop: Of course, everyone is going to be tempted to pick up one of the top drivers. But I would stay away from drivers that cost more than 10.0 mil out of the gate. Those drivers can really only go down in value or stay the same. You need to pick drivers that will build your budget so that you can eventually put together to a 6 or 7 man team. A team with 6 middlers will always beat a team of 4 superstars. Don't go out and pick up Hamilton, Vettel and Schumi and expect to win. In fact, I don't think that any team should start the season with a single driver from the big 4 teams (McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull or Brawn/Merc). Wait it out and see. At the end of the season last year, the highest valued driver was Vettel (Red Bull) at 13.50 mil. Button also reached this level before falling off to 13.0 mil. So if you pick up Hamilton - for example - at 12.50 mil right now, the most he will likely gain is 1.0 mil through the season. And you are stuck with him weighing down your budget. So the tip of the day is: stay clear of high-priced superstars early in the year. At least one will start slow out of the gates and fall in value. That's when you pick him up. Don't forget, at one point last year Massa could have been had for 8.0 mil and Alonso for 7.0 mil. Food for thought indeed.

6. Team And Driver Loyalties: The first thing that will kill your chances of winning in The League is to stick with team and/or driver loyalties. I love McLaren and thus drivers Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton. But I wouldn't touch either of those expensive drivers early in the season. They take too much from your budget and kill your flexibility. Likewise, I know that everyone wants to root for Schumi - even if you don't admit it. But he is simply a very bad buy at 10.0 mil or more. Don't let your heart control your head. This is a game - and a long one. Play to win - not to impress.

That is how I see it right now. Let's hear what you guys think.

Good luck!

Dana
Barrister

[Ced]

Schumi is soo gonna be a failure. Its gonna be similar to MJ when he came back to play for the Wizards.

[Barrister]

↑ I am not sure what Schumi will do. But his downside is huge, while is upside isn't great.

Remember, we are talking about the Fantasy League here - not reality.

In The League, he is a bad buy because he is substantially overvalued.

Nothing will kill your chances in The League than wasting your budget on drivers that you think will consistently win races.

You need a team of guys that will FINISH races. That's where the easy points are to be had.

I am really tipping my hand here . . .

[TeutonicCarFan]

So maybe I don't understand. Is the key to have the largest increase in value over 40m, or to have the highest number of points at the end of the season, or both with one being tie breaker (in this case, which is more important)?

[Gobbles]

Points. But what Dana is alluding to here is a strategy I did not catch onto early enough last season. The right low budget guys build value that you can sell for other drivers later on. High value drivers that have an awful weekend you can sell high and re-buy low. There is a transaction strategy to be played on top of the sheer points game.

[TeutonicCarFan]

Ohh, I see. I guess that is definitely the way. Unless your big money men go 1 and 2 first weekend IF someone is a 12m person, how low do they have to place to go down in value, if you remember from last year?

[Barrister]

That's correct. And it is a real thinker's game too.

Your goal should be to increase your budget as much as you can early in the season.

So, if you buy Lewis at 12.5 mil and he wins the first three races, he might go up to 13.0 mil and you have effectively gained .5 mil to your budget.

But if you pick up Barrichello and he simply places in the points, he will likely go from 8.00 mil to 10.0 mil. The rush to pick him up will be huge because everyone wasted their money on Lewis. You gain 2.0 mil to your budget and laugh all the way to the bank.

[Barrister]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeutonicCarFan »

IF someone is a 12m person, how low do they have to place to go down in value, if you remember from last year?

Lewis Hamilton dropped to around 10.0 mil last year when McLaren sucked.

Conversely, Button went from 7.00 mil to 13.5 mil.

Now that's what I am talkin' about WILLIS!

[Barrister]

There is no better feeling in The League than making that first 1 for 2 trade.

If you can get a guy up in value so that you can trade 1 guy for 2 - you always do it.

I am basically telling you all how to win here. I am stupid.

[Gobbles]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barrister »

There is no better feeling in The League than making that first 1 for 2 trade.

If you can get a guy up in value so that you can trade 1 guy for 2 - you always do it.

I am basically telling you all how to win here. I am stupid.

LOL, stop it already.